Football Predictions Review, 20–26 October: 72% Win Rate

The week in numbers

Between 20 and 26 October, 143 matches across 15 leagues reached their final scores. Mergen AI achieved 103 right main picks, resulting in a 72% win rate. This performance sits 3 points below the season average of 75%. Looking at the plain Over/Under 2.5 picks, 73 of the 143 matches were correct, which is 51% compared to the season rate of 58%. Total scoring remained relatively high as the matches averaged 2.87 goals.

Main picks vs all 2.5 picks

Main picks consist of Over/Under 2.5 selections when confidence reaches 65% or more, while other matches use safer options like Over 1.5 or Under 3.5. Mergen showed confidence in 27 matches, hitting 19 of them for a 70% success rate. For the remaining 116 matches, the safer picks performed well with 84 correct results, or 72%. In those same 116 matches, the plain 2.5 picks were much weaker, hitting only 54 times for 47%. This means the safer approach was 25 points better in that group. Ultimately, the main picks finished 21 points ahead of the plain 2.5 picks.

League by league

Serie B led the way with a perfect 10/10, or 100% accuracy. The Premier League followed closely with 9/10 at 90%, while the Pro League reached 7/8 at 88%. At the other end of the spectrum, the Super League Greece finished with 4/7 at 57%, the Primeira Liga had 5/9 at 56%, and the 2. Bundesliga saw 4/9 at 44%. Out of the 15 leagues, 7 reached a 70% success rate or higher, while 3 stayed below 60%. Because each league only had between 7 and 13 matches this week, these small samples mean a single week's results can cause large swings in league standings.

Best calls and biggest misses

Success came from high-confidence picks like the 1-2 result in Barcelona - Real Madrid, which hit the over 2.5 goals at 82% confidence. Other strong calls included AEK Athens - Panetolikos, which ended 5-0 for the over 2.5 goals at 75% confidence, and RB Leipzig - SV Elversberg, which saw a 4-0 scoreline for the over 2.5 goals at 74% confidence. However, some high-confidence picks failed. Borussia Dortmund - Eintracht Frankfurt missed the over 2.5 goals at 71% confidence with a 1-0 score, failing by 2 goals. Beşiktaş - İstanbul Başakşehir also missed the over 2.5 goals at 70% confidence with a 2-0 score, missing by 1 goal. Finally, PSV Eindhoven - Feyenoord missed the over 2.5 goals at 70% confidence with a 1-1 score, also missing by 1 goal. Of the 40 missed main picks, 24 were on Over and 16 on Under.

Best calls

Biggest misses

Goal trends of the week

The average goal count was 2.87 this week, slightly lower than the season average of 2.97. Only 52% of matches featured 3 goals or more, down from 58% for the season. A total of 2 goals was the most frequent outcome, occurring in 40 matches. Interestingly, 73 of the 143 matches ended with exactly 2 or 3 goals, landing right around the 2.5 line. While 11 matches saw 6 goals or more, 8 matches ended in 0-0 draws. The Pro League was the highest-scoring at 4.62 goals per match, whereas the Premier League recorded the lowest at 1.9.

Season record so far

The season record currently stands at 879 right main picks out of 1175 matches, a 75% success rate. Plain 2.5 picks have reached 682 right results, or 58%. The best week of the season was 25 August, which saw 82% from 133 matches, while the weakest was 29 September at 45% from 11 matches. This week's 72% rate marks the 9th best result out of the 12 weeks that contained enough matches for a full review.

How we count

Mergen AI's main pick for a match is its Over/Under 2.5 pick when it is at least 65% confident, and a safer pick otherwise: Over 1.5 for an Over pick, Under 3.5 for an Under pick. Cancelled and postponed matches aren't counted. The season record also includes the matches we back-tested when we added new leagues in October.

This is football analysis, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.