Football Predictions Review, 27 October – 2 November: 77% Win Rate
How Mergen AI's predictions did across 15 leagues: 120 of 156 main picks were right (77%), and 88 of 156 Over/Under 2.5 picks (56%).
The week in numbers
From 27 October to 2 November, 156 matches across 15 leagues reached their final scores. Mergen AI achieved 120 right main picks, resulting in a 77% win rate. This performance sits 2 points above the season average of 75%. The plain Over/Under 2.5 picks reached 88 of 156, which is 56% compared to 58% for the season. Across all tracked games, the matches averaged 3.05 goals.
Main picks vs all 2.5 picks
Main picks consist of Over/Under 2.5 selections when confidence hits 65% or more, while other matches use safer options like Over 1.5 or Under 3.5. Mergen showed confidence in 29 matches, with 15 being right for a 52% rate. The remaining 127 matches saw the safer picks succeed 105 times, an 83% success rate. In those same 127 matches, the plain 2.5 picks only went 73 of 127, or 57%. This means the safer approach was 26 points better in that group. Ultimately, main picks finished 21 points ahead of the plain 2.5 picks.
| Picks | Right | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Main picks | 120/156 | 77% |
| All Over/Under 2.5 picks | 88/156 | 56% |
| Confident picks (65%+) | 15/29 | 52% |
| Safe picks (below 65%) | 105/127 | 83% |
League by league
Super League Greece led the way with a perfect 7/7, 100% success rate. Serie B and La Liga 2 followed closely, both hitting 90% with 18/20 and 9/10 right respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, the Championship, Eredivisie, and Ligue 2 struggled, with results landing between 56% and 58%. While 10 of the 15 leagues reached 70% or more, 3 stayed below 60%. It is important to note that these leagues only had between 7 and 20 matches this week, so one week's league result swings a lot.
| League | Right | Win rate | Goals/match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super League Greece | 7/7 | 100% | 2.71 |
| Serie B | 18/20 | 90% | 2.45 |
| La Liga 2 | 9/10 | 90% | 3.10 |
| Primeira Liga | 8/9 | 89% | 2.11 |
| Pro League | 8/9 | 89% | 3.56 |
| Ligue 1 | 6/7 | 86% | 2.71 |
| Serie A | 16/20 | 80% | 3.85 |
| La Liga | 8/10 | 80% | 3.00 |
| Bundesliga | 7/9 | 78% | 3.11 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 5/7 | 71% | 2.57 |
| Süper Lig | 5/8 | 62% | 3.88 |
| Premier League | 6/10 | 60% | 2.10 |
| Championship | 7/12 | 58% | 3.42 |
| Eredivisie | 5/9 | 56% | 4.00 |
| Ligue 2 | 5/9 | 56% | 2.78 |
Best calls and biggest misses
High confidence selections delivered some impressive results. PSV Eindhoven - Willem II in the Eredivisie saw over 2.5 goals at 77% confidence with a 7-0 score. Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga also hit over 2.5 goals at 76% confidence with a 2-2 score, while Barcelona - Alavés in La Liga saw over 2.5 goals at 75% confidence with a 6-1 score. However, some confident picks failed. Trabzonspor - Gaziantep FK in the Süper Lig missed over 2.5 goals at 74% confidence with a 2-0 score, missing by 1 goal. Feyenoord - Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie missed over 2.5 goals at 73% confidence with a 1-1 score, also missing by 1 goal. Benfica - Alverca in the Primeira Liga missed over 2.5 goals at 71% confidence with a 1-0 score, missing by 2 goals. Of the 36 missed main picks, 22 were on Over and 14 on Under.
Best calls
Biggest misses
Goal trends of the week
Matches averaged 3.05 goals this week, slightly higher than the 2.98 season average. A total of 54% of matches had 3 goals or more, compared to 57% for the season. The most common total was 2 goals, occurring in 45 matches. Interestingly, 78 of the 156 matches ended with 2 or 3 goals, sitting right around the 2.5 line. High-scoring games were present in 18 matches with 6 goals or more, while 6 games ended 0-0. The Eredivisie was the highest-scoring league with 4.0 goals per match, while the Premier League was the lowest at 2.1.
Show the numbers
| Goals in the match | Matches |
|---|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| 1 | 20 |
| 2 | 45 |
| 3 | 33 |
| 4 | 22 |
| 5 | 12 |
| 6+ | 18 |
Season record so far
The season record now stands at 1331 matches, including those back-tested when new leagues were added. Main picks have been right 999 times, a 75% rate, while plain 2.5 picks have been right 770 times, or 58%. The best week on record was 25 August, reaching 82% from 133 matches. The weakest was 29 September, at 45% from 11 matches. This week's 77% is the 4th best performance out of the 13 weeks with enough matches.
Show the numbers
| Week starting | Right | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug | 20/29 | 69% |
| 11 Aug | 50/65 | 77% |
| 18 Aug | 73/96 | 76% |
| 25 Aug | 109/133 | 82% |
| 1 Sep | 113/144 | 78% |
| 8 Sep | 95/143 | 66% |
| 15 Sep | 105/137 | 77% |
| 22 Sep | 9/11 | 82% |
| 29 Sep | 5/11 | 45% |
| 6 Oct | 93/127 | 73% |
| 13 Oct | 104/136 | 76% |
| 20 Oct | 103/143 | 72% |
| 27 Oct | 120/156 | 77% |
How we count
1 of this week's matches had no result yet when this was published, so they aren't counted.
Mergen AI's main pick for a match is its Over/Under 2.5 pick when it is at least 65% confident, and a safer pick otherwise: Over 1.5 for an Over pick, Under 3.5 for an Under pick. Cancelled and postponed matches aren't counted. The season record also includes the matches we back-tested when we added new leagues in October.
This is football analysis, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees.